Finance is a key frontier for AI. Imagine coming back from vacation and talking to your virtual assistant about your investment portfolio and wondering how he does it, quarter after quarter, year after year. Managing money is the real human AI. It has to talk, it has to think, it has to have intuition and it has to make money.
Why should an investment analyst need a special skill set different from that of a sports analyst, a beverage company executive, a scientist, a social change agent, or the key decision makers in the government. Data, and its interpretation, is what connects us all despite our domains. We may not always be able to reconcile sub-atomic data with stock market data as both of them vibrate at a different frequency, but that does not change some universal laws which are present in every data set, irrespective of its natural source. Statistical laws are not only at the heart of physics, but also drive how we look at data. This means that there is the overlooked influence of ‘Data Universality’. Universality can be defined as “The aspects of a system’s behavior which are independent of the behavior of its components. And even systems whose elements differ widely may nevertheless have common emergent features”, Therefore, Data Universality can be defined as the “common universal behavior of any data set irrespective of its organic source of generation or derivation.” The talk on Data Universality will explain the disconnect between Pareto’s 80-20 and Galton’s Mean Reversion; how investing styles can be simplified; how Capital Asset Pricing Model can be transformed into a framework for modeling growth and decay of any natural variable driven by data.
When I first met him, I had the feeling that a movie star was in front of me. He looks like a movie star, but he thinks like a visionary. He comes from India, the largest democracy in the world, a country with an incredible past, and a bright future; a land of choices, a country with as many Gods as you can count, and a wonderful cuisine. Not to mention the incredible philosophical, religious, and cultural traditions and also the amazing scientific discoveries. That’s why it was not very clear to me, at the beginning, what he was doing here, in Romania, in Cluj. After a while, I understood.
There are many universal laws, but few or none are used to understand markets. Stock markets are natural systems and express universal laws. Building a case for an application built around such laws is not easy, as failure or noise effects universality too. Mean reversion is a universal law, which has also suffered from failure and noise. The patterns and noise in mean reversion has been witnessed across subjects like Behavioral Finance, Intermarket Analysis, and Statistics etc. However, little has been done to understand the failure of mean reversion. The talk will focus on comprehending the failures of mean reversion and how it could be redefined into a better statistical and universal risk management framework, have cross sector application like investment management and predicting trends etc.
” The New Passive ” – 20 Oct 2013
The investment business is primarily about beating a sector benchmark, or peer funds, or simply delivering more than a composite index. Though 90% of the money managers fail to consistently beat the benchmark, delivering more than the benchmark is considered as a filter which separates the outperformers from the rest. While the market community is focused on this outperformance, little research has been done on financial innovation which recreates, redefines, recalculate the benchmark (composite index) itself, to enhance alpha, reduce risk and extend the passive indexing domain. Very few have attempted this feat like S&P Dow Jones Indices, Russell and Fundamental index, the innovators end up becoming the new market itself. The presentation will talk about the new age global indexing techniques and index enhancing smart beta approaches and how Indian investors and money managers can utilize the new passive for diversification and risk management across Indian asset classes
The Active Money Management System
• How active money management style can adopt a new look as compared to passive investing.
• Approach to build a new active system.
• Indian Equity Market based active money management systems.
The investment business is primarily about beating a sector benchmark, or peer funds, or simply delivering more than a composite index. Though 90% of the money managers fail to consistently beat the benchmark, delivering more than the benchmark is considered as a filter which separates the outperformers from the rest. While the market community is focused on this outperformance, little research has been done on financial innovation which recreates, redefines, recalculate the benchmark (composite index) itself, to make a new benchmark. Very few have attempted this feat like S&P Dow Jones Indices, Russell and Fundamental index, the innovators end up becoming the new market itself.
I was in Budapest for a market conference. The theme was based on Martin Pring’s recent book, ‘Investing in another lost decade'. Pring is the second generation of technicians along with John Murphy and Robert Prechter. Pring’s generation followed the generation of J. Welles Wilder, Joseph E. Granville and Ralph N Elliott.
Though CYCLES are discussed and talked about for a few hundred years, few researchers have attempted a composite theory of Time CYCLES. The few thinkers were Samuel Benner, Joseph Schumpeter and Tony Plummer. The event will discuss a brief history on Time CYCLES and build on it to explain how seasonality and cyclicality also exists in performance. The speaker will illustrate cyclicality in price performance and how it can be combined with technical analysis to create trading setups, identify investment opportunities and build portfolios.
Evenimentul va menține structura și modul de organizare de la evenimentele anterioare, concepute și construite pe ideea de a crea o platformă de oportunități și business networking pentru antreprenorii și managerii români. Sunt singurele evenimente care integrează în jurul ideii de business networking interesele celor trei mari categorii de stakeholderi ce iau parte la ele: participanți, speakeri și parteneri.
Mukul Pal, director al societăţii de consultanţă în investiţii Orpheus Capital din Cluj-Napoca şi unul dintre puţinii analişti care au prevăzut corecţiile SIF-urilor din primăvara 2010, spune că scăderile înregistrate de burse în ultimele săptămâni sunt oportunităţi de achiziţie pentru că "ne aflăm la începutul unei pieţe bull".
These are some of the pictures from the 20 May TED event. We will post the videos in 3 weeks. Mukul spoke about the mathematical nature of Time and how it could change the way we see the world around us. TED is a nonprofit devoted to Ideas Worth Spreading. It started out (in 1984) as a conference bringing together people from three worlds: Technology, Entertainment, Design. Since then its scope has become ever broader. Along with two annual conferences — the TED Conference in Long Beach and Palm Springs each spring, and the TEDGlobal conference in Edinburgh UK each summer — TED includes the award-winning TEDTalks video site, the Open Translation Project and TED Conversations, the inspiring TED Fellows and TEDx programs, and the annual TED Prize.